The world economy, what it will be, primarily affect the actions of the government. It is on them that the possibility of overcoming the global financial crisis, which has three main stages, depends on them.
The first stage falls on 2009. It is characterized by attempts to fix what has already happened. Moreover, the cause of the crisis is not eradicated. Nobody even tries to find her. Only consequences are eliminated. This is due to the opinion that the crisis is fleeting and previously proven anti -crisis measures will be effective in this case. These measures are a monetary policy of the Central Bank. But its application can lead to a deterioration in the situation, to the impossibility of correcting anything. At this stage, macroeconomic indicators on the economy of significant influence do not have. And smoothing the consequences by increasing exports and cooperation with other countries of a positive result does not give a lot of difference between the economies because. Gradually comes the understanding that monetary policy is not effective in the fight against the global crisis. International policy is activated. As a result — the coalition of the countries of the former CIS, Russia, China, India, parts of Europe. Positive trends can be expected in this union. But at a more global level, European and world, this should not be expected. The reason for this is the lack of trust, the inability to come to a compromise and unwillingness to make concessions. Due to the fear of even greater financial chaos, it will be impossible to change the international financial policy, the system of settlement of state debts.
The second stage begins in 2010. At this time, the existing international financial system is completely falling apart and a new.
This stage, firstly, is characterized by the redistribution of roles on the global financial scene. So loses its leading position in the United States. This happens for several reasons:
1. The United States refuses to fulfill existing debt obligations.
2. The dollar rate is sharply reduced.
3. International contracts are changing in connection with a change in currency.
4. The dollar ceases to be world currency.
All this leads to a global crisis in the United States.
Secondly, the world economy comes to collapse. There are also several reasons for this:
1. The global financial market ceases to be one and is divided into separate zones on the basis of the currency operating there.
2. The value of the cost on foreign exchange exchanges becomes regional.
3. Commodity-money relations give way to barter.
4. Production are transferred to countries that are consumers of products, t. e. The value of import-export is reduced.
5. The total political tension increases more and more.
6. Unemployment and corruption are growing at a great pace.
Thus, it is impossible to get out of the crisis through only domestic policy, which leads to the beginning of the third stage in 2011 — 2012.
This stage is marked by identifying the causes of the global crisis. This becomes the reason for the revision of the attitude to economic responsibility, the transparency of the global economy and its stabilization, which will lead to the beginning of an economic rise.
